Every year we hear that next year’s quarterback class is better, so it is worth waiting for them. This thinking is flawed because, yes, next year’s class is talented but they have yet to go under the microscope of intense film study. Whenever this happens to a player, warts appear.
Right now the thinking is that next year’s class is filled with superstars and high level prospects. We remember the live games and the highlights, but the in-depth study has yet to take place.
Last year at this time people were debating if Goff and Wentz were worthy of top selections. There were many people campaigning to wait because Kizer and Watson were coming out next year and they are better. Mitch Leinder was once thought of as a first round talent, and now he is unlikely to be selected in this year’s draft. Now that we are in the here and now, people are campaigning again to wait.
This year we are hearing there are no sure-fire quarterbacks and they all have flaws, but in fact next year’s class has many of the same flaws.
Patrick Mahomes is said to have mechanical issues, but so does Sam Darnold. Deshaun Watson throws too many interceptions, yet Josh Allen throws an interception on 4% of his passes compared to Watson’s 2.9%. Mitch Trubisky is consistently knocked for his one year of experience yet so many of next year’s prospects have only played for a year. We don’t know if they will get better or regress with defensive coordinators having an off-season to study them.
Statements without research aren’t facts, they are opinions. An opinion cannot determine whether it is a good idea to wait on quarterbacks in next year’s class or not, but research can give us a strong indication. I looked at the top seven quarterbacks in next year’s class, and broke them down as if they had entered this year’s draft. These are not final evaluations, but can help shed light on the “wait for next year’s class” debate.