That’s more like it! After hitting .500 against the spread in college football’s opening weekend, ATS picks rebounded to 3-1 in Week 2 contests. My only gaffe? Taking a home SEC team as an underdog against a notoriously small/fast defense (Arkansas/Texas Christian).
The match-ups in Week 3 aren’t as sexy as some of the early year contests, but there’s still a number of games I like.
Crabbs’ Week 2 CFB picks against the spread (game winners in bold)
#23 Texas Christian @ Arkansas (+3.5) – Loss
#5 Oklahoma (+7.5) @ #2 Ohio State – Win
#15 Georgia (+5.5) @ #24 Notre Dame – Win
#9 Louisville (-9.5) @ North Carolina – Win
Last week: 3-1
Season to date: 5-3
Kentucky Wildcats @ South Carolina Gamecocks (-6.5)
I have a feeling this is the last week you’re going to see South Carolina sitting on the outside of the AP Top 25. The Gamecocks have youth and skill on their side offensively, and the team has enjoyed the return of LB Skai Moore (15 tackles) to the line-up. An impressive blow-out against Missouri comes on the heels of a great opening season win against the Wolfpack of NC State.
Kentucky is catching this team, who is firing on all cylinders at the wrong time, as this upstart Gamecocks team will be fired up to play at home for the first time this season.
Oregon Ducks @ Wyoming Cowboys (+14.0)
I’m sure this is hearsay, but you’d have a hard time convincing me that the top end Draft QB in this contest plays doesn’t play for the Ducks. Sophomore QB Justin Herbert has been terrific so far this season, and I don’t see how the Cowboys keep the cap on this Ducks offense.
On the other side, Oregon scoring points equates to a lot of passing from QB Josh Allen. A lot of passing from a QB who hasn’t made the best decisions against top competition in the past is not a great recipe for success. Look for a few turnovers to bloat the score of this contest.
#3 Clemson Tigers @ #14 Louisville Cardinals (+3.0)
The Cardinals feature the best player in college football. For that reason, it’s very difficult to count them out of any affair. Lamar Jackson hasn’t just helped his draft status, he’s making a resounding case to be the second repeat Heisman Trophy winner in the history of the award. But Lamar Jackson does not play defense and his mobility can only mask protection lapses so much.
I think the Tigers’ talent elsewhere will close the gap, specifically a front four that includes Dexter Lawrence, Christian Wilkins, Austin Bryant and Clelin Ferrell. There’s 2-3 potential 1st round selections out of that crop up front.
Take the over in this game, but I do ultimately think Clemson forces enough negative plays to squeak out the win.
#25 UCLA Bruins @ Memphis Tigers (+3.0)
The Memphis program is not one to be slept on; they’re a program that enjoyed growth under former head coach Justin Fuente during his 4 years with the team. But Fuente has moved on to bigger pastures (Virginia Tech) and with him goes the best chance for sustained success. The Tigers do have some relevant Draft prospects, including transfer QB Riley Ferguson (Tennessee).
But the Bruins are firing off points faster than you can count in their last 5 quarters of play. I wouldn’t bet against such a hot team to come out and perform as needed to cover a 3.0 point spread in their favor.