Let’s be honest, October was a rough month all around with the picks ATS. After a two week stretch of 1-7 (curse you, Kansas State!), a rebound to wrap up the month has put us in prime position to finish this season in the green. A 2-2 record isn’t winning you any money in Week 9; but I also didn’t lose you any money either. Stay woke.
Crabbs’ Week 9 CFB picks against the spread (game winners in bold)
#3 Georgia Bulldogs (-14.0) vs. Florida Gators
#5 Wisconsin Badgers (-26.5) @ Illinois Illini
Louisville Cardinals (-3.0) @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Duke Blue Devils @ #12 Virginia Tech Hokies (-15.5)
Last week: 2-2
Season to date: 19-17
#19 Louisiana State Tigers @ #2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-21.0)
Head Coach Nick Saban referred to the CFB Playoff Top 25 rankings as poison for his players, but you can bet your bottom dollar he’s referenced not being #1 in the polls as a sign of disrespect to his football team.
Maybe he’s right. Maybe the Tide are the best team in football. Maybe they deserve to be the number one ranked team in the country. But even if they are, I’m not necessarily sold that Alabama is three touchdowns and change better than LSU.
You have to go all the way back to the year 2003 to find a game between these two that finished with a final margin greater than 21 points (LSU won, 27-3 with some guy named Nick Saban calling the shots for the Tigers).
#5 Oklahoma Sooners @ #11 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-2.5)
Defense? We don’t need to stinking defense. I’m here to watch Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph drop bombs on the opposing secondary until the cows come home. Bedlam is going to be mayhem; with neither team really showing the ability to stop a quality offense with consistency.
Want some bonus advice? Take the over. Oklahoma’s average margin in conference play is 40.0-33.0 points in five games. The Cowboys? 38.4-28.6. #ThereWillBePoints
So what’s the difference? Oklahoma State hosting the game? Nope. Ogbonnia Okoronkwo? Yes. “Obo” is the game changing defense trump card who will force Mason Rudolph off his spot and generate some poor throws. The Cowboys have the ability to disrupt the pocket as well, but Baker Mayfield can thrive in such situations.
Southern Mississippi Eagles @ Tennessee Volunteers (-6.5)
SEC pundits have had Coach Butch Jones in their headlines all year. “Jones must go!” And yeah, Tennessee football is not playing up to their own standards right now, riding a 4 game losing streak entering this game. But I have some news for you, the Vols are going to collect leadership reps and “W’s” alike in November, as I’m predicting they go 3-1 down the stretch and clinch a bowl berth.
Coach Butch, please. Feed John Kelly (he was suspended against Kentucky) the football and let your offense reap the benefits!
Massachusetts Minutemen @ #16 Mississippi State Bulldogs (-32.0)
Listen. Spreads in the 30s scare me in general. But the Bulldogs are entering this game with losses to just Auburn and Georgia, while kicking in the Aggies’ teeth en route to a 35-14 road win last week. QB Nick Fitzgerald really hasn’t taken the next step as a passer that some thought he could, but his athleticism shines as part of a potent rushing attack for the #16 Mississippi State program.
The Minutemen? They’ve got a stud in TE Adam Breneman. But guess what the UMass football program team doesn’t have? A win against a Power 5 opponent. Ever.
UMass is riding high off two straight wins, one a big time victory over Appalachian State. But the party ends this weekend in a big way.